🔗 Share this article

Just eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of the side's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The team marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six games, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to answer. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, while the victories have accumulated.

Per Opta, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.