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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.