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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."